To make optimal decisions, end-users of decision support systems require information accurately describing the uncertainty of the underlying weather forecasts. Air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed are critical surface weather variables in many economic sectors. The generation of sharp and calibrated probabilistic forecasts and their effective presentation to decision makers ar...

Weather forecasting in Antarctica is essential for US Antarctic Program (USAP) operations. However, forecasting in this region is extremely difficult both because the observational and modeling tools available are inadequate and because our understanding of the science behind the meteorology of Antarctica is incomplete. The weather of Antarctica is dominated by three factors: (1) the polar high...

This paper describes a Weather Impact Model (WIM) capable of serving a variety of predictive applications ranging from real-time operation and dayahead operation planning, to asset and outage management. The proposed model is capable of combining various weather parameters into different weather impact features of interest to a specific application. This work focuses on the development of a uni...

In this paper, models for shortand long-term prediction of wind farm power are discussed. The models are built using weather forecasting data generated at different time scales and horizons. The maximum forecast length of the short-term prediction model is 12 h, and the maximum forecast length of the long-term prediction model is 84 h. The wind farm power prediction models are built with five d...

In order to provide an uncertainty estimate for short-term wind power predictions the accuracy of the underlying wind speed prediction is assessed quantitatively for different meteorological situations. With methods from synoptic climatology an automatic classification scheme is implemented using measurements of wind speed, wind direction and pressure at mean sea level to characterize the local...

Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high-impact weather are often due to lack of observations over data sparse areas, such as the southern hemisphere, Tropics and Northern hemisphere oceans, over a prolonged period prior to the extreme event. Int...

The spatial resolution of publicly available numerical weather forecasts is largely limited by the computing resources of the originating weather services. Only selected parameters are available to the public from many weather services. We present a scalable system for distributed computation of high resolution symbiotic numerical weather forecasts. Each forecast is computed on the user’s deskt...

The practical utilization of available modern as well as traditional weather forecasting systems builds herders' resiliency capacity to climatic shocks. The precision and reliability of the forecasting system determines its creditability and acceptance by the users to be proactive in the decisions they make based on the forecasted information. It has been postulated that traditional weather for...

In recent years, introduction of alternative energy sources such as solar energy is expected. Solar heat energy utilization systems are rapidly gaining acceptance as one of the best solutions to be an alternative energy source. However, thermal energy collection is influenced by solar radiation and weather conditions. In order to control a solar heat energy utilization system as accurate as pos...

Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty (initial error) and the forecast uncertainty (forecast error) by applying either the initial perturbation method ...