This paper presents out-of-sample inflation forecasting results based on relative price variability and skewness. It is demonstrated that forecasts on long horizons of 1.5-2 years are significantly improved if the forecast equation is augmented with skewness. JEL: E17, E31, C43

In this paper the authors explore the ability of simple monetary models with bounded rationality to account for the joint distribution of money and prices. They impose restrictions on the size of the mistakes agents can make in equilibrium and argue that countries with high inflation are likely to satisfy these restrictions. Their computations show that the model with bounded rationality does n...

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data...

The purpose of this paper is to develop an output oriented methodology for calculating productivity growth by using Malmquist productivity index (MPI) and two different data envelopment analysis (DEA) views (optimistic and pessimistic) simultaneously, and apply it to five Iranian Commercial Banks over the four time period (2009-2013). Consequently, we have proposed a new approach called the dou...

The New Deal for Young People (NDYP) is one of the main components of the UK government’s Welfare-to-Work strategy aimed at raising employment and reducing benefit dependency. It combines elements of an active labour market programme with a stricter benefit regime. This paper evaluates its impact on the wider economy, emphasising the importance of the programme’s effect on wage pressure, which ...

In this paper, we analyze coordination of macroeconomic stabilization policies within the EMU by focusing, in a dynamic set-up, on asymmetries, externalities, and the existence of a multi-country context. We study how coalitions among fiscal and monetary authorities are formed and what are their effects on the stabilization of output and price. In particular, our attention is directed to study ...

We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG algorithms are sensitive to units of measurement and we show that there is a transformation of varia...