Operational earthquake forecasting in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) model will be implemented using the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Parameter values for the ETAS model are determined by fitting that model to the recent instrumental earthquake catalog. A grid search is done, and the loglikelihood is used as a measure of fit to estimate...

BACKGROUND Alternanthera sessilis is a popular vegetable and used in traditional medicinal practice of Bangladesh and other parts of Asia to relive tiredness, laziness, and sleeps as well as pain and inflammation. However, no report was found on the neuropharmacological and analgesic activity of this plant to-date. Present study was undertaken to evaluate the neuropharmacological and analgesic ...

Point process models such as the Epidemic-type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model have been widely used in the analysis and description of seismic catalogs and in shortterm earthquake forecasting. The standard errors of parameter estimates in the ETAS model are significant and cannot be ignored. This paper uses simulations to explore the accuracy of conventional standard error estimates based on ...

5 [1] Modern earthquake catalogs are often described using spatial‐temporal point process 6 models such as the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). 7 Earthquake catalogs often have issues of incompleteness and other inaccuracies for 8 earthquakes of magnitude below a certain threshold, and such earthquakes are typically 9 removed prior to fitting a point process mode...

The complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region was sequenced for 71 individuals from five species of the rodent genus Clethrionomys both to understand patterns of variation and to explore the existence of previously described domains and other elements. Among species, the control region ranged from 942 to 971 bp in length. Our data were compatible with the proposal of three domains (exte...

Argyreia speciosa (sweet) (Burm.f.) Boj. is an Ayurvedic rasayana plant used as an adaptogen. The present study reports the investigations done on the adaptogenic property of ethanol (EtAS; 100 and 200 mg/kg; po), ethyl acetate (EAAS; 100 and 200 mg/kg; po) fraction and flavanoids such as quercetin and kaempferol (25 mg/kg; po) of the root. Immobilization induced acute stress (AS; 3 days) and c...

This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly ...

Abstract Earthquake occurrences are often described using a class of branching models called Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models. The name derives from the fact that the model allows earthquakes to cause aftershocks, and then those aftershocks may induce subsequent aftershocks, and so on. Despite their value in seismology, such models have not previously been used in studying the in...

An approximation technique is introduced that greatly facilitates the estimation of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model introduced by Ogata (1988), which is widely used to describe earthquake catalogs. The proposed approximation greatly simplifies the integral term in the log-likelihood, the computation of which is by far the greatest hurdle in maximum likelihood estimation. The ...