The paper presents a bivariate SVAR model including growth rates of industrial production and of stock prices. Imposing a long-run restriction à la Blanchard and Quah (1989) that excludes long-run influences of the stock market on real activity allows to decompose stock prices in a fundamental and a nonfundamental component. The results of the forecast error variance decompositions as well as o...

There is controversy about whether a monetary union is feasible in the East Asian region. Amongst the criteria for establishing a monetary union, most of the existing studies focus on the symmetric issue of fundamental shocks and the extent of correlations by applying the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique, which includes the firstdifferenced variables in...

This paper uses the short-run restrictions implied by a simple aggregate demandaggregate supply model as an aid in identifying structural shocks. Combined with the Blanchard-Quah restriction, it allows estimation of the slope of the aggregate supply curve, the variances of structural demand and supply shocks, and the extent to which structural demand and supply shocks are correlated. This paper...

Unlike previous studies, the current study uses oil price and inflationary shocks to assess feasibility of actualizing ECOWAS Vision 2020, which is aimed at creating a monetary union. With help Blanchard Quah (BQ) decomposition for sample from 1975:05 2018:08, two sets models are estimated: shocks. It found that although vision mirage, creation common currency can serve as shock absorber agains...

This paper investigates the effect of a positive technology shock on per capita hours worked within the class of Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive [BVAR] models. Such a framework avoids the current debate regarding the specification issue of per capita hours [level versus first-difference stationary]. Six priors are considered and for each, we examine the impulse responses of per capita hours fol...

Article history: Received 1 April 2010 Received in revised form 3 August 2011 Accepted 4 August 2011 Available online 11 August 2011 This paper uses a tri-variate structural VAR with a long-run identification scheme, akin to the Blanchard and Quah method, to identify external and domestic supply and demand shocks in 22 African countries between 1980 and 2005. Domestic supply shocks are found to...

We propose a new methodology for the analysis of impulse response functions in VAR or VARMA models. More precisely, we build our results on the non ambiguous notion of innovation of a stochastic process and we consider the impact of any kind of new information at a given date t on the future values of the process. This methodology allows to take into account qualitative or quantitative informat...

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of monetary union membership will depend on the extent to which price and output shocks are correlated acr...

This paper investigates the impacts and responses of macroeconomic shocks in some domestic economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1961-99; more specifically, it seeks to answer the question of whether there are any systematic differences in the responses of the CFA franc zones and the non-CFA franc zone countries to macroeconomic shocks. Based on the Blanchard-Quah methodology, we iden...