نتایج جستجو برای: Forecast modelling
تعداد نتایج: 189264 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
This study examines the benefits of nonlinear time series modelling to improve forecast accuracy of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The paper adopts a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) modelling framework to assess the potentially regime-dependent dynamics of sea surface temperature anomaly. The results reveal STAR-type nonlinearities in ENSO dynamics, resulting in sup...
A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO2 forecasting system is that the la...
Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty (initial error) and the forecast uncertainty (forecast error) by applying either the initial perturbation method ...
In this paper, we use integer programming (IP) to compute minimal forecast horizons for the classical dynamic lot-sizing problem (DLS). As a solution approach for computing forecast horizons, integer programming has been largely ignored by the research community. It is our belief that the modelling and structural advantages of the IP approach coupled with the recent significant developments in ...
Time series analysis techniques (ARIMA models), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and Bayesian dynamic models were used to forecast annual loliginid and ommastrephid landings recorded from the most important fishing ports in the Northern Aegean Sea (1984–1999). The techniques were evaluated based on their efficiency to forecast and their ability to utilise auxiliary environmental information. A...
This paper investigates the evolution of the automation process of modelling in the context of enterprise information systems. An evolution schema for modelling automation based on the dimensions “process”, “artefacts” and “technology” is introduced. Modelling currently experiences a similar evolution of automation such as other disciplines, like architecture, automotive, and trade have done in...
Nonlinear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive and frequently proposed time series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices. In this paper such models are compared to an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performance. The study is carried out using German daily spot prices from the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig. Four no...
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