Understanding links between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and snow would be useful for seasonal forecasting, as well as for understanding natural variability and interpreting climate change predictions. Here, a 545-yr run of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3), with prescribed external forcings and fixed greenhouse gas concentrations, is used to ex...

Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especiall...

[1] Observations and simulations (using the HadCM3 AOGCM) of time-dependent twentieth-century climate change indicate a linear relationship F = rDT between radiative forcing F and global mean surface air temperature change DT. The same is a good description of DT from CMIP3 AOGCMs integrated with CO2 increasing at 1% per year compounded. The constant ‘‘climate resistance’’ r is related to the t...

Simulations of the last 500 yr carried out using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3) with anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) forcings have been analyzed. Globalmean surface temperature change during the twentieth century is well reproduced. Simulated contributions to global-mean sea level rise during recent decades due to thermal expansion (the largest term...

The global Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) model was used to estimate the impacts of the global oceanic warming on the climate projections for the 21st Century focusing on the South America region. This new model is able to represent simultaneously the global and regional scales using a refining grid approach for the region of interest. First, the model was run for a 31-year control period c...

This article explores four key questions about statistical models developed to describe the recent past and future of vector-borne diseases, with special emphasis on dengue: (1) How many variables should be used to make predictions about the future of vector-borne diseases? (2) Is the spatial resolution of a climate dataset an important determinant of model accuracy? (3) Does inclusion of the f...

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potentia...

investigation of drought event has a great importance in the natural resources management and planning water resources management. in this research, the effect of the climate change on drought characteristics in northwest of iran was investigated using the hadcm3 model under a2 scenario. the statistical downscaling was executed using sdsm 4.2.9 and observed daily precipitation, observed predict...