Article history: Accepted 20 November 2013 Available online xxxx JEL classification: G12 G14

Article history: Accepted 25 February 2013 JEL classification: G12 G14 E43

Article history: Received 30 March 2013 Accepted 14 May 2013 Available online xxxx JEL classification: C02 C13 G14

Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does type matter? We propose novel SVAR identification strategy address these questions via inequality constraints on structural shocks. find that sharply higher macroeconomic recessions often output shocks, while financial markets likely fluctuations. (JEL D81...

Abstract Many financial instruments are designed with embedded leverage, such as options and leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Embedded leverage alleviates investors’ constraints, and, therefore, we hypothesize that lowers required returns. Consistent this hypothesis, find empirically ETFs provide significant amounts of leverage; increases return volatility in proportion to the higher is ...

Our experiments investigate the extent to which traders learn from price, differentiating between situations where orders are submitted before versus after price has realized. In simultaneous markets with bids that conditional on neglect information conveyed by hypothetical value of price. sequential is known prior bid submission, react an roughly consistent benchmark theory. The difference’s r...

Abstract We illustrate the role of left tail dependence—left mean (LTM)—in equity risk premium (ERP) predictability. LTM measures average pairwise dependency among major sectors incorporating shocks imperceptible at aggregate level. LTM, as well variance premium, significantly predicts ERP in and out sample, which is not case with commonly used predictors. find this predictability result procyc...

ABSTRACT We investigate the relationship between insider horizon and disclosure policy. First, we develop analyze a rational expectations model assuming insiders are able to commit Insiders with short prefer more willing bear costs of reduce information asymmetries among capital market participants. then empirically test our predictions in setting newly public firms where CEO is approaching ret...

This article empirically examines the relationship between order sizes and spreads in the foreign exchange market based on a FX dealer’s quotes. It is found that spreads are independent of order sizes in the inter-dealer market, but they are negatively correlated in the customer market. JEL classification: F31; G14

Using Monte Carlo simulations, I show that typical out-of-sample forecast exercises for stock returns are unlikely to produce any evidence of predictability, even when there is in fact predictability and the correct model is estimated. JEL classification: C15; C53; G14.