In social science there often exists several plausible theories to explain actions, and hence several models which researchers can use in their empirical work. Researchers Barbieri (1996, 1998) and Oneal and Russett (1999) using different measures of trade interdependence (models) have come to disparate conclusions with respect to trade's effect on conflict. Each of their inferences is based on...

Model averaging provides an alternative to model selection. An algorithm ARM rooted in information theory is proposed to combine di erent regression models/methods. A simulation is conducted in the context of linear regression to compare its performance with familiar model selection criteria AIC and BIC, and also with some Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods. The simulation suggests the foll...

Research background: It is not straightforward to identify the role of institutions for economic growth. The possible unknown or uncertain areas refer nonlinearities, time stability, transmission channels, and institutional complementarities. research problem tackled in this paper analysis stability relationship between growth real convergence.
 Purpose article: article aims verify whether...

Recent studies using regional climate models to make probabilistic projections break important new ground. However, they typically lack cross validation, pull the projections toward agreeing models (which can agree due to shared biases), and ignore model skill at reproducing internal variability when weighing the models. Here we conduct the first, to our knowledge, application of Bayesian model...

In this paper, we assess Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques for dynamic linear models (DLMs) with variance matrix discounting. In previous research, the discount factors for the variance matrices and the auto-regressive lag have typically been pre-determined and held constant over time. Using posterior model probabilities, we average DLMs employing different discount rates and lag parame...

With the ever-increasing significance of software in our everyday lives, it is vital to afford reliable software quality estimates. Typically, quantitative software quality analyses rely on either statistical fault prediction methods (FPMs) or stochastic software reliability growth models (SRGMs). Adopting solely FPMs or SRGMs, though, may result in biased predictions that do not account for un...

The rational management of water resource systems requires an understanding of their response to existing and planned schemes of exploitation, pollution prevention and/or remediation. Such understanding requires the collection of data to help characterize the system and monitor its response to existing and future stresses. It also requires incorporating such data in models of system makeup, wat...