2006. Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon. Publishers page: Please note: Changes made as a result of publishing processes such as copy-editing, formatting and page numbers may not be reflected in this version. For the definitive version of this publication, please refer to the published source. You are advised to consult the publisher's v...

Demand fluctuations in the supply chain lead to uncertainty in inventory policy and thereupon the inventory costs increase. This paper considers the impact of forecasting on the demand variation in a serial three-stage supply chain including a retailer, a manufacturer and a supplier. Four forecasting methods are considered and demand variations evaluated as bullwhip effect measure. We use analy...

The Damped Trend (DT) forecasting method has been recognized for its superior accuracy. Li et al., (2014) show when DT forecasts are used within the order-up-to (OUT) policy, the bullwhip effect is avoided by using unconventional DT parameter settings. We extend this study in three directions. First, by investigating the relationship between the stability and invertibility, we show that stable ...

The supply chain is major part of business activities. In the supply chain, every organization orders from its instantaneous upstream collaborators. Usually, the retailer’s order do not match with the authentic retail sales. The bullwhip effect refers to the incident where orders to the supplier tend to have bigger variance than sales to the buyer (i.e. demand misrepresentation), and the altera...

We consider a series of companies in a supply chain, each of which orders from its immediate upstream members. Usually, the retailer’s order do not coincide with the actual retail sales. The bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where orders to the supplier tend to have larger variance than sales to the buyer (i.e. demand distortion), and the distortion propagates upstream in an amplified fo...

Supply Chain operation is an integrated business process starting from primary supplier to end user and the process produce products, services and information. A successful chain will explore technology, lean operations, and quality management by adding value for customers and stakeholders. It is a strategic alliance among the partnering enterprises without geographical boundary. Every chain ha...

The rounding of orders to achieve a batch size is recognised as a source of the bullwhip problem within supply chains. While it is often advocated that batch sizes should be reduced as much as possible, there has been limited investigation into the impact of batching on bullwhip. Here we consider scenarios where orders are placed only in multiples of a fixed batch size, for both deterministic a...

The Bullwhip Problem in supply chains is +rst outlined. A discrete control theory model of a generic model of a replenishment rule is presented. From this model, an analytical expression for bullwhip is derived that is directly equivalent to the common statistical measure often used in simulation, statistical and empirical studies to quantify the bullwhip e1ect. This analytical expression clear...

This paper analyses the empirical demand data for fast moving consumer goods to measure the Bullwhip-effect. The data consist of the sell-in from a large manufacturer to the retailers and the sellout from a retailer to the consumers. Our findings show that the Bullwhip-effect can be substantial. Indeed, in more than 50% of the cases, the demand upstream (sell-in) is twice as variable as the dem...