Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on or with methods for evaluating conditional forecasts. This paper provides analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on tests of predictive ability for ...

This paper introduces various consistent tests for the null hypothesis of stationarity with possibly unknown multiple structural break points against the alternative of nonstationarity that can be applied to multiple as well as univariate time series. These tests can be applied to either partial or pure structural breaks. It is shown that tests for stationarity become divergent when structural ...

Often we are interested in the largest root of an autoregressive process. Available methods rely on inverting t-tests to obtain confidence intervals. However, for large autoregressive roots, t-tests do not approximate asymptotically uniformly most powerful tests and do not have optimality properties when inverted for confidence intervals. We exploit the relationship between the power of tests a...

Using a time series framework, the paper studies the interactions of the annual real per capita GDP data of the G7 countries. We find evidence of six common nonstationary processes behind the international output dynamics. In addition, there is evidence for the existence of a common business cycle among these countries. The trend and cycle components of each output series are obtained with a pr...

Recently, there has been a renewed interest in modeling economic time series by vector autoregressive moving-average models. However, this class of models has been unpopular in practice because of estimation problems and the complexity of the identification stage. These disadvantages could have led to the dominant use of vector autoregressive models in macroeconomic research. In this paper, sev...

The effect of monetary policy on the farm sector remains controversial. Studies attempting to quantify the effects of monetary disturbances on real farm prices report conflicting results: some find that positive monetary shocks increase real farm prices in the short run, while others detect no such effect. We offer a resolution of these conflicting findings by re-estimating existing models on a...

Wastes produced during fermentation and distillation of crude sugarcane juice in rum factories were evaluated as a new source of waxes. The chemical composition of the crude wax extracted from adsorbat of the wastes on fuller's earth was studied by GC-mass spectrometry. Series of linear alkanes (C19-C33), and wax esters constitute the main components. In addition, phytosterols, triterpene methy...

This paper concerns the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the covariance structure of US government bond returns for six different maturities; the study shows that the conditional variances, covariances, and correlation coefficients are significantly greater on announcement days. On non-announcement days, the correlation coefficients are relatively large and are greater the closer the b...

Confidence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer from notorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependence in the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as is often the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using the studentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as the choice of the block size. A particular da...

A direct correlation between π- and spherical aromaticity of the aromatic structures was established by showing that they shared a characteristic shielding cone, resulting from a specific orientation of the applied field. Herein, we revealed the presence of a related long-range shielding cone in spherical aromatic species that was demonstrated through C20, C32, C50, and C60 Hirsh aromatic fulle...