This paper estimates a structural VAR model of U.S. consumer and world commodity prices. An equiproportional long-run response of nominal price levels to amonetary shock yields identifying restrictions. Exogenous innovations tomonetary policy account for a sizable share of the co-movement of these series, including during episodes more commonly attributed to “supply shocks.” JEL Categories: C32...

This paper proposes new iterative reduced-rank regression procedures for seasonal cointegration analysis. The suggested methods are motivated by the idea that modelling jointly the cointegration restrictions at the different frequencies may induce some efficiency gain in finite samples. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the new tests and estimators perform well with respect to already exist...

This paper compares the cycles in UK sectoral output generated from both univariate and multivariate unobserved components models. Common trends and cycles are found among the sectors and it is found that these help to identify the cycles in the multivariate model. JEL Classi...cation: C32, E32.

In this note we consider the treatment of structural breaks in VAR models used to test for unit roots and cointegration. We give practical guidelines for the inclusion and the specification of intervention dummies in those models. JEL Classification Code: C32, C52, E43.

We establish the validity of subsampling confidence intervals for the mean of a dependent series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. Using point process theory, we study both linear and nonlinear GARCH-like time series models. We propose a data-dependent method for the optimal block size selection and investigate its performance by means of a simulation study. JEL CLASSIFICATION NOS: C10,...

This note solves the puzzle of estimating degenerate Wishart Autoregressive processes, introduced by Gourieroux, Jasiak and Sufana (2009) to model multivariate stochastic volatility. It derives the asymptotic and empirical properties of the Method of Moment estimator of the Wishart degrees of freedom subject to different stationarity assumptions and specific distributional settings of the under...

This paper suggests a bootstrap testing procedure for determining the rank of cointegrated systems. The properties of the new testing procedure are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the test compares favourably to that of the widely used procedures for determining cointegration rank proposed by Johansen (1988). JEL classi cation: C12; C15; C32.

This paper specifies two VAR models for testing efficiency and expectations in foreign exchange markets. The sufficient conditions for efficiency and rational expectations, by imposing restrictions on the VAR parameters, are derived. Based on these models, issues on testing efficiency and rationality are discussed with reference to previous empirical studies in the area.  2002 Elsevier Science...

This note provides a proof of Granger's (1986) error correction model for fractionally cointegrated variables and points out a necessary assumption that has not been noted before. Moreover, a simpler, alternative error correction model is proposed which can be employed to estimate fractionally cointegrated systems in three steps. JEL Classification Code: C32

Various species of the Carlina genus have been used in traditional medicine in many countries to treat numerous skin disorders, including cancer. The objective of this work was to assess the anticancer properties of root and leaf extracts from Carlina acaulis subsp. caulescens and C. acanthifolia subsp. utzka. Anti-tumor properties of the extracts were explored using a tetrazolium-based cell vi...