background & aim: congenital hypothyroidism (ch) is one of the most common endocrine diseases and is a major cause of preventable mental retardation. early diagnosis of ch can help prevent future diseases. although time series techniques are often utilized to forecast future status, they are inadequate to deal with count data with overdispersion. the aim of this study was to apply poisson hidde...

This work introduces MACACO, a macroscopic calcium currents simulator. It provides a parameter-sweep framework which computes macroscopic Ca(2+) currents from the individual aggregation of unitary currents, using a stochastic model for L-type Ca(2+) channels. MACACO uses a simplified 3-state Markov model to simulate the response of each Ca(2+) channel to different voltage inputs to the cell. In...

Stochastic behavior of stock returns is very important for investors and policy makers in the stock market. In this paper, the stochastic behavior of the return index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TEDPIX) is examined using unobserved component Markov switching model (UC-MS) for the 3/27/2010 until 8/3/2015 period. In this model, stock returns are decomposed into two components; a permanent componen...

in this paper, an interactive model for individual normal behaviour of drivers is presented in which the mutual effect of vehicles has been incorporated. temporal features obtained from vehicles tracking and their motion history is utilized for generating a model of normal behaviour. because of non-stationarity of behaviour, hidden markov model has been used for interactive model. this model ha...

We introduce backoff processes, an idealized stochastic model of browsing on the world-wide web, which incorporates both hyperlink traversals and use of the “back button.” With some probability the next state is generated by a distribution over out-edges from the current state, as in a traditional Markov chain. With the remaining probability, however, the next state is generated by clicking on ...

A profile hidden Markov model (PHMM) is widely used in assigning protein sequences to protein families. In this model, the hidden states only depend on the previous hidden state and observations are independent given hidden states. In other words, in the PHMM, only the information of the left side of a hidden state is considered. However, it makes sense that considering the information of the b...

in this paper a simple and effective expert system to predict random data fluctuation in short-term period is established. evaluation process includes introducing fourier series, markov chain model prediction and comparison (gray) combined with the model prediction gray- fourier- markov that the mixed results, to create an expert system predicted with artificial intelligence, made this model to...