We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before presen...

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities w...

[1] Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesti...

The ability of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) in reproducing the area-average observed daily precipitation during the rainy season (Feb–Mar–Apr) over the north of the Northeast of Brazil (NEB) is examined. For the present climate of Dec-Jan-Feb from 1963 to 2003 period these statistical models are developed and validated using the observed daily pre...

We examine climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (sinking particulate flux; EP) with simulations from nine Earth system models (ESMs) performed in the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced by the end of the century for the intense warming scenario of Representative Concentration Pat...

The simulations of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) strengthen previous assessments of a substantial role of anthropogenic emissions in driving precipitation changes in the Sahel, the semi-arid region at the southern edge of the Sahara. Historical simulations can capture the magnitude of the centennial Sahel drying over the span of the 20th century and confirm that anthr...

We have analyzed the teleconnection of total cloud fraction (TCF) with global sea surface temperature (SST) in multi-model ensembles (MME) fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 CMIP6). CMIP6-MME has a more robust realistic (TCF SST) pattern over extra-tropics (R ~ 0.43) North Atlantic 0.39) region, which turn resulted an improvement rainfall bias Asian summer monsoon (AS...

Regional climate models (RCMs) in general can simulate the characteristics of heavy/extreme precipitation more accurately than general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of more realistic representation of topography and mesoscale processes. An analogue method of statistical downscaling, which identifies the resolved large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with heavy precipitation, is ...

The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospher...

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) is backing an international initiative called the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). The goal of the initiative is to provide regionally downscaled climate projections for most land regions of the globe, as a compliment to the global climate model projections performed within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (...