In power system reliability assessment, the system security limits and adequacy indices depend on the set of contingencies analyzed. Consequently the final solution strategies for short term operational and long term investment planning studies also depend on the set of contingencies considered for planning. Generally, planning is done for the most critical contingency, with the assumption that...

This paper presents the R package CAvariants (Lombardo and Beh, 2017). The package performs six variants of correspondence analysis on a two-way contingency table. The main function that shares the same name as the package – CAvariants – allows the user to choose (via a series of input parameters) from six different correspondence analysis procedures. These include the classical approach to (sy...

Given a collection of accepted risks with corresponding impacts and probabilities over the life of a project (or a relevant portion), a method to estimate the total potential impact at a given certainty is presented. Project sponsors and managers can decide their risk tolerance and set aside corresponding contingency funds. This analytic method uses a binomial distribution with a probability eq...

How to assign numerical values for probabilities that do not seem artificial or arbitrary is a central question in Bayesian statistics. The case of assigning a probability to the truth of a proposition or event for which there is no evidence other than that the event is contingent, is contrasted with the assignment of probability in the case where there is definte evidence that the event can ha...

In the context of an era filled with frequent occurrence of emergencies, it is urgent to carry out effective treatment. The existing studies focus their research on general rule of emergency evolution, ignoring the consideration of concrete composition of scenario, while the formulation of contingency plan based on the real evolution process of the emergency is rare. In this paper, the basic mo...

The increased complexity of the transmission grid can endanger operational security grid. Operational risk assessment, a stochastic tool, helps to enhance security. Contingency analysis and its impact quantification are main constituents assessment. In this study, different graphical methods proposed visualize contingency-based detailed results: heat-map risk-based contingency chart. Through he...

Operational Risk management, the least covered component of Enterprise Wide Risk Management, needs intelligent tools to implement Comprehensive Emergency Management Programs. In this paper we discuss how an Intelligent Decision Support System (I-DSS), based on Fuzzy Logic, can be used for supporting the management of complex and critical systems, especially under contingency situations, with li...

We consider conditional exact tests of factor effects in designed experiments for discrete response variables. Similarly to the analysis of contingency tables, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method can be used for performing exact tests, when large-sample approximations are poor and the enumeration of the conditional sample space is infeasible. For designed experiments with a single observation for...

This paper presents a method for designing a Neural Network (") for potential application in real-time system security analysis. Specifically, we formulate the contingency classification problem as a pattern recognition problem and then design a NN to classify the system states (i.e., normal, alert and emergency). A two-layered NN with a fully-connected asynchronous binary model for each layer ...