A Bayesian measure of evidence for precise hypotheses is presented. The intention is to give a Bayesian alternative to significance tests or, equivalently, to p-values. In fact, a set is defined in the parameter space and the posterior probability, its credibility, is evaluated. This set is the “Highest Posterior Density Region” that is “tangent” to the set that defines the null hypothesis. Our...

JEL classification E52 This paper examines the credibility of the Federal Reserve's monetary targets using survey data on money growth forecasts to measure market expectations. The paper provides two main results. First, there is strong evidence that the monetary targets were credible over the 1978 to 1993 sample period, although credibility fell in the post-1985 period. Second, both the federa...

On the basis of analytical theory of credible traditional data, this paper constructs a hierarchical trusted network model of dynamic data analysis by increasing time factor, penalty factor and other weight parameters, which puts the credibility of the analysis of the problem down to the big data combinatorial problems of between the data sources, data source and data dissemination network path...

Economic theory predicts a positive relationship between property rights and economic growth. However, few developing countries have experienced better economic performance after improving their protection of property rights. The following manuscript addresses this puzzle by directly assessing where property rights reforms have been effective. I argue that multiple, reinforcing credibility mech...

Microblogs have become an increasingly important source of information, both in the U.S. (Twitter) and in China (Weibo). However, the brevity of microblog updates, combined with increasing access of microblog content through search rather than through direct network connections, makes it challenging to assess the credibility of news relayed in this manner [34]. This paper reports on experimenta...

We present an approach to determine the credibility of content provided within a visual VGI source such as Flickr. We propose analysing the variability of selected user and photo metadata of geotagged Flickr photos with the location correctness of these images, which is our reference quality measure. These observed user and photo metadata can help to infer the credibility of contributors.

We present an approach to determine the credibility of content provided within a visual VGI source such as Flickr. We propose analysing the variability of selected user and photo metadata of geotagged Flickr photos with the location correctness of these images, which is our reference quality measure. These observed user and photo metadata can help to infer the credibility of contributors.

We present an approach to determine the credibility of content provided within a visual VGI source such as Flickr. We propose analysing the variability of selected user and photo metadata of geotagged Flickr photos with the location correctness of these images, which is our reference quality measure. These observed user and photo metadata can help to infer the credibility of contributors.

Fuzzy clustering is a widely used approach for data classification by using the fuzzy set theory. The probability measure and the possibility measure are two popular measures which have been used in the fuzzy c-means algorithm (FCM) and the possibilistic clustering algorithms (PCAs), respectively. However, the numerical experiments revealed that FCM and its derivatives lack the intuitive concep...