Using state-dependent local projection methods and historical U.S. data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, we find significant crowding-out of personal consumption and investment in low private debt states, resulting in multipliers that are below one. Conversely, in periods of private debt overhang, there is ...

In the summer of 1997, when the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston selected the topic for its forty-second annual economic conference, many pundits were asking: “Is the business cycle dead, or at least permanently dampened?” By the time the Bank’s conference convened in June 1998, the same pundits queried: “What caused the massive recessions in Asia?” and “Can the United States remain ‘an oasis of ...

This paper develops a network model of interbank lending in which unsecured claims, repo activity and shocks to the haircuts applied to collateral assume centre stage. We show how systemic liquidity crises of the kind associated with the interbank market collapse of 2007–2008 can arise within such a framework, with funding contagion spreading widely through the web of interlinkages. Our model i...

BACKGROUND Despite extensive research on determinants of health, there is much less information on factors protecting health among those exposed to economic shocks. Using longitudinal data from the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet period, we examined individual-level factors that enhance resilience of health to economic shocks. METHODS Logistic regression analysed factors associated with...

Recent experience suggests that the operation of monetary policy in emerging market economies is severely limited by the presence of financial constraints. This is seen in the tendency to follow contractionary monetary policy during crises, and the observation that these countries pursue much more stable exchange rates than do high income advanced economies, despite having a more volatile exter...

Inflation targeting has been widely adopted in both developed and emerging economies. In this essay, I survey the evidence on the effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance and assess what lessons this evidence provides for inflation targeting and the design of monetary policy. While macroeconomic experiences among both inflation targeting and non-targeting developed economies ...

the frequent occurrence of currency crises in recent years brought the early warning literature back in the researchers spotlight. in recent years, concept of an early warning system (ews) developed that should be able to identify various costly events, such as currency crises, early enough for policy makers to reduce the costs. this study attempted by using iran's economy quarterly data d...

Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst others, present interlinked challenges for small businesses have generated a recent wealth of research across varied fields. Therefore, this article outlines an analytical lens suggesting how SMEs experience shocks crises that focuses on the nature (i) business, (ii) shock (iii) response within given co...

Resilience has emerged as a crucial measure of company’s ability to withstand challenges in the current complex business environment. However, prior research indicates that employee diversity may not consistently lead positive impact on corporate resilience. This paper investigates resilience face various external crises by examining performance Chinese listed companies during 20-year period fo...