Currency crises appear to spread regionally. In this paper we use Bayesian methodology on data from four waves of currency crises in the late twentieth century to examine the mechanism by which currency crises spread from one country to another. In particular, we examine whether trade linkages, “other” unquantifiable linkages proxied for by relative geographical distance, or macroeconomic and f...

nancial crises is one of the gravest threats to an open and liberal international economic order... Recent events in Turkey and Argentina demonstrate that financial crises with potentially profound consequences for economic and political stability are not a thing of the past. They also demonstrate the continued urgency of finding practical and concrete means to handle the crises that do occur.”...

Financial crises of the magnitude that caused the ongoing Great Recession are relatively rare but dramatic and socially costly events. As was the case with the 1990s emerging markets crises or the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Great Recession was preceded by prolonged booms in credit, economic activity and asset prices, followed by a sharp, sudden crash. This observation has made policymak...

We explain why correlation crises may occur in insurance and finance. These phenomena are not taken into account in Solvency II standard formula. We show the importance of taking them into account in internal models or partial internal models. Given the variety of scenarios that could lead to correlation crises and their different potential impacts, we support the idea that ORSA (Own Risk and S...

the frequent occurrence of currency crises in recent years brought the early warning literature back in the researchers spotlight. in recent years, concept of an early warning system (ews) developed that should be able to identify various costly events, such as currency crises, early enough for policy makers to reduce the costs. this study attempted by using iran's economy quarterly data d...

This paper generates a typology of balance-of-payments crises under rational expectations, namely liquidity crises and solvency crises. The ex-post application of official financial rescue packages of sufficient size is a perfect cure for liquidity crises but amounts to an ineffective and costly bailout of private investors in the case of solvency crises. The anticipation of the rescue program ...

The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008, coupled with food and fuel price volatility, are likely to affect developing countries, and within them the vast majority of the world’s poor population in profound ways. Based on both experiences in previous crises and the information that is available thus far on the current crises, this working brief will examine the channels through which th...