Research on crude oil price forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from scholars and policymakers due to its significant effect the global economy. Besides supply demand, prices are largely influenced by various factors, such as economic development, financial markets, conflicts, wars, political events. Most previous research treats a time series or econometric variable prediction probl...

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, the...

This paper explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventor...

During the first quarter of 2002, the price of crude oil averaged $19.67 per barrel. Four years later, in the first quarter of 2006, the average price of oil had risen to $63 per barrel. Indeed, the high price of oil may not be a short-lived phenomenon: Futures markets indicate that investors expect the price of oil to remain above $70 per barrel through 2008. For the postwar U.S. economy, the ...

In terms of sharp drop of international oil prices in the second half of 2008 after heading skyward in the first half of 2008 following continual growth since 2005, while at the same time certain parity among energy prices was disrupted, the author of this article tried to investigate key factors that influenced oil and gas industry and to answer the question what would be a »fair» price of cru...