We consider the problem of modelling the term structure of bonds subject to default risk, under minimal assumptions on the default time. In particular, we do not assume the existence of a default intensity and we therefore allow for the possibility of default at predictable times. It turns out that this requires the introduction of an additional term to the forward-rate approach by Heath, Jarro...

In recent ®nancial crises a bubble, in which asset prices rise, is followed by a collapse and widespread default. Bubbles are caused by agency relationships in the banking sector. Investors use money borrowed from banks to invest in risky assets, which are relatively attractive because investors can avoid losses in low payoff states by defaulting on the loan. This risk shifting leads investors ...

In this paper we consider the following inverse problem for the first hitting time distribution: given a Wiener process with a random initial state, probability distribution, F (t), and a linear boundary, b(t) = μt, find a distribution of the initial state such that the distribution of the first hitting time is F (t). This problem has important applications in credit risk modeling where the pro...

We measure credit risk premia—prices for bearing corporate default risk in excess of expected default losses—using Markit CDS and Moody’s Analytics EDF data. We find dramatic variation over time in credit risk premia, with peaks in 2002, during the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and in the second half of 2011. Even after normalizing these premia by expected default losses, median credit ri...

In this paper, we analyze the impact of default risk on the portfolio decision of an investor wishing to invest in corporate bonds. Default risk is modeled via a reduced form approach and we allow for random recovery as well as joint default events. Depending on the structure of the model, we are able to derive almost explicit results for the optimal portfolio strategies. It is demonstrated how...

BACKGROUND Zimbabwe is a Southern African country with a high HIV-TB burden and is ranked 19th among the 22 Tuberculosis high burden countries worldwide. Recurrent TB is an important problem for TB control, yet there is limited information about treatment outcomes in relation to HIV status. This study was therefore conducted in Chitungwiza, a high density dormitory town outside the capital city...

This paper assesses whether ratings or market-based credit risk measures are more suitable for formulating portfolio governance rules. Such rules, which consist of buy and sell restrictions, are commonly used in investment management. Based on data from 1983 to 2002, it is not evident that one of the two measures is superior. The relative power of the two measures in predicting defaults depend ...

The paper studies structural credit risk models with incomplete information of the asset value. It is shown that the pricing of typical corporate securities such as equity, corporate bonds or CDSs leads to a nonlinear filtering problem. This problem cannot be tackled with standard techniques as the default time does not have an intensity under full information. Using the Dellacherie-formula the...

Agency ratings and market-based measures of default risk are useful complements. Combining the two improves the prediction of defaults over the use of a single measure. While in-sample analysis suggests that one should give more weight to ratings as the horizon increases, or issuers become less risky, a simple equal-weight combination of ratings and market-based measures is hard to beat out of ...

This paper proposes a new method to measure and monitor the risk in a banking system. Standard tools that regulators require banks to use for their internal risk management are applied at the level of the banking system to measure the risk of a regulator’s portfolio of banks. Using a sample of European banks from 1997 until 2003, we estimate the dynamics and correlations between bank asset port...