This paper investigates forecasts of US in#ation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. In#ation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commo...

High Curie temperaturepiezoelectricthin films of xBiInO3-(1-x)PbTiO3 (x = 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, and 0.25) were prepared by pulsed laser deposition. It was found that the tetragonality of films decreased with increasing BI content. The dielectric constant and transverse piezoelectric coefficient (e31,f ) exhibit the highest values of 665 and -13.6 C/m2 at x = 0.20. Rayleigh analyses were performed t...

Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on Taylor-style staggered contracts can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This paper presents some general theoretical results about Taylor-style models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelati...

This paper examines the in ationary consequences of a currency changeover in the catering market. Empirical evidence from the Michelin Red Guide shows that: i) di erently from restaurants in non-euro countries, restaurants in the euro area experienced abnormal price increases just after the changeover, ii) among restaurants in the euro area, tourist restaurants are responsible for most of the a...

Motoyuki Hattori, Norihiko Iwase, Noritaka Furuya, Yoshiki Tanaka, Tomoya Tsukazaki, Ryuichiro Ishitani, Michael E Maguire, Koichi Ito*, Andres Maturana* and Osamu Nureki* Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan, Department of Biological Information, Graduate School of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Tokyo Institute of T...

We study optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines agents’ confidence give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Insights from widely studied fundamental-driven traps are not useful guide for enhancing welfare this model. Raising the inflation target, appointing an inflation-conservative central banker, or allowing use of governm...

This paper combines a data-rich environment with machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors (“belief distortions”) embedded in survey responses. We find sizable distortions even for professional forecasters, all respondent-types overweighting the implicit judgmental component their forecasts relative what can be learned from publicly avai...

This paper assesses the presence and importance of neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates estimates an empirical a New Keynesian model driven by stationary nonstationary monetary real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases inflation output. The main finding is that permanent shocks increase long run ra...

We study what happens to identified shocks and dynamic responses when the data generating process features q disturbances but 1 < variables are used in an empirical model. Identified linear combinations of current past values all structural do not necessarily combine same type. Theory-based restrictions may be insufficient obtain dynamics. revisit evidence regarding transmission house price ...

abstract the purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis first proposed by romer (1993); suggesting that inflation is lower in more open economies. according to this hypothesis, central banks have a lower incentive to engineer surprise inflations in more-open economies because the phillips curve is steeper. furthermore, comparing with other empirical studies, this paper has used the new kof...