Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirely from female employment, as women’s employment rates converged toward men’s during the past half-century. But does growth of translate into a for overall rates? We estimate extent to which women “crowd out” men labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through lens general equilibrium model with...

We formalize the editorial role of news media in a multisector economy and show that can be an independent source business cycle fluctuations, even when they report accurate information. Public reporting about subset sectoral developments are newsworthy but unrepresentative causes firms across all sectors to hire too much or little labor. construct historical measures US coverage use them calib...

We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete information that are robust across structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information economy time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions ensure the rationalizable by some structure. Using our approach, we quantify potential importance of as source business cycle fluctuations in otherwise frict...

This paper examines the long-run effects of 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in severity cohorts age at time recession. For individuals 0–10 1979, a 10 percent decrease earnings per capita their county birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 adulthoo...

Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions few years later. To isolate the causal effect, take an instrumental variable approach—exploiting randomness in allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document chiefs differ their individual degrees forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental vari...

This paper modifies the standard Mortensen-Pissarides job matching model in order to explain the cyclical behavior of vacancies and unemployment. The modifications include strategic wage bargaining (Hall and Milgrom, 2006) and convex labor adjustment costs. The results reveal that our model replicates the cyclical behavior of both variables remarkably well. First, we show that strategic wage ba...

In the context of a standard equilibrium matching framework, this paper considers how a duration-dependent unemployment insurance (UI) system affects the dynamics of unemployment and wages in an economy subject to stochastic job-destruction shocks. It establishes that re-entitlement effects induced by a finite duration UI program generate intertemporal transfers from firms that hire in future b...

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices and the great moderation are linked. First, we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until 1982:II, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spill-over has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, the ...