China saves an extraordinary share of its GDP; moreover, this share has been growing steadily over the last two decades. More puzzling, however, is the persistence of this savings behavior in the face of the high rate of growth of the economy – a rate that shows no sign of abating. A standard neoclassical model would not predict such a relationship between the two variables, and would in fact p...

Economic conditions at the time of labour market entry can induce wage diff erentials between workers entering the labour market at diff erent points in time. While the existence and persistence of these entry wage diff erentials are well documented, little is known about their interaction with employees’ mobility behaviour. This paper contributes to this research area by analyzing the interact...

BACKGROUND Recent trends show an unprecedented feminisation of migration in China, triggered by the increasing demand for cheap labour in big cities and the availability of women in the labour market. These trends corroborate the evidence that non-agricultural work and remittance from urban labour migrants have become the major sources of rural household income. OBJECTIVE This paper investigate...

This paper studies the role of ‡uctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at di¤erent time scales for predicting stock returns and explore the channels through which returns are predicted. Using U.S. quarterly and international monthly data, we …nd that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better predictors of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than the aggregat...

Characterizing the outcomes related to the phenotype of exceptional cognitive abilities has been feasible in recent years due to the availability of large samples of intellectually precocious adolescents identified by modern talent searches that have been followed-up longitudinally over multiple decades. The level and pattern of cognitive abilities, even among participants within the top 1% of ...

This paper studies the quantitative importance of precautionary wealth accumulation relative to life—cycle saving for retirement. Section 1 examines panel data on earnings from the PSID. Using a bivariate normal model of random effects, we find that second— period—of—life earnings are strongly positively correlated with initial earnings but have a higher variance. Section 2 studies the conseque...