Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification ...

In light of newly-acquired geophysical information about earthquake generation in the Tokai area, Central Japan, where occurrence of a great earthquake of magnitude 8 or so has recently been feared, probabilities of earthquake occurrence in the near future are reevaluated. Much of the data used for evaluation here relies on recently-developed paleoseismology, tsunami study and GPS geodesy. The ...

BACKGROUND In 2009, an earthquake devastated the Abruzzo region in Italy. Despite the occurrence of several disasters in this country, no study on mental health of Italian children has ever been conducted in complex emergencies. Objective of the study was to assess the prevalence of psychiatric symptoms among children in the affected area 12 to 17 months after the event. METHODS A community s...

We demonstrate that the statistics of earthquake data in the global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) and National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) catalogs and local California Council of the National Seismic System (CNSS) catalog are consistent with the idea that a single physical triggering mechanism is responsible for the occurrence of aftershocks, foreshocks, and multiplets. Specifically, w...

We perform numerical simulations of dynamic rupture processes along the North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara, which poses a high risk to the nearby city of Istanbul. Several fault geometry models, nucleation points, and initial stress states are tested. The likelihood of each earthquake scenario is evaluated, and a probabilistic assessment of the ground-motion estimation is proposed. The...

This paper discusses the critical role of transportation systems in disaster recovery and the development of any long-term economic effects from earthquakes, based on insights from the Kobe earthquake and other disasters. The occurrence of long-term effects on regional economies has been controversial in the disaster literature and are for the most part ignored in earthquake loss estimation mod...