This paper looks into the issue of evaluating forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form of the chosen measure. We propose wellmotivated Kullback-Leibler Divergence based accuracy measures. In the empirical direction, we study the perfo...

A large literature has evolved in the thirty years since the seminal work on combining forecasts. Despite this, when evaluating performance we only look at measures of accuracy and thus ignore most of the rigour of time series analysis. Furthermore, the output from a combination of forecasts is just a single point estimate which is insufficient for business planning models which take explicit a...

We introduce TG/MC, a Monte-Carlo approach for evaluating the impact of uncertainty about vulnerabilities upon forecasts of security for a real-world system modeled by a protection graph. A TG/MC model defines a vulnerability as a potential change to an otherwise safe initial protection graph that, if exploited, leads to an unauthorized state, a violation of the system’s security policy through...

Background The WHO announced the epidemic of SARS-CoV2 as a public health emergency international concern on 30th January 2020. To date, it has spread to more than 200 countries and been declared global pandemic. For appropriate preparedness, containment, mitigation response, stakeholders policymakers require prior guidance propagation SARS-CoV2. Methodology This study aims provide such by fore...

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a f...

Population mortality forecasts are widely used for allocating public health expenditures, setting research priorities, and evaluating the viability of public and private pensions, and health care financing systems. In part because existing methods forecast less accurately when based on more information, most forecasts are still based on simple linear extrapolations that ignore known biological ...

Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluatin...