Abstract The aim of the paper is to compare forecasting performance a class statedependent autoregressive (SDAR) models for univariate time series with two alternative families nonlinear models, such as SETAR and GARCH models. study conducted on US GDP growth rate using quarterly data. Two methods forecast comparison are employed. first method consists in evaluation average by measures root mea...

BACKGROUND In an era of easy access to information, university students who will soon enter health professions need to develop their information competencies. The Research Readiness Self-Assessment (RRSA) is based on the Information Literacy Competency Standards for Higher Education, and it measures proficiency in obtaining health information, evaluating the quality of health information, and u...

We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the correspo...

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This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in the context of international tourism demand. Five econometric and two time-series models are employed to generate individual forecasts. Six combination methods are then employed, and their forecasting performance evaluated, using data on UK outbound tourism demand in seven destination countries. The results suggest that combina...

Building on previous studies of western North Pacific formation and intensity predictions along the ECMWF ensemble medium-range track forecasts, first objective this transition to eastern was provide earlier forecasts Time-to-Formation (T2F) Time-to-Hurricane (T2H) than are available from National Hurricane Center Advisories. For six hurricanes 2021 season, detections in were 8 days 12 advance ...

Weather forecasts are produced to help people make decisions in weather sensitive situations, so an important aspect of forecast quality is the economic value of the forecasts to decision-makers in real applications. Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts in real-life operations can, however, be complex. The forecasts are usually only one of a number of factors influencing decisions,...

Policy makers and businessmen demand real-time information and short-term forecasts about bed-nights occupied and the occupancy rate in hotel establishments (the latter being the percentage ratio of the number of bed nights occupied to the number of bed-nights on offer in the same period, usually one month). So, when these forecasts are obtained using single equations time series models, implic...