Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert's touch, is non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qual...

The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members the public. However, and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure, high-altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting location auroral oval therefore key component space weather forecast operations. A version OVATION-Prime 2013 precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https:/...