In this study a new type of ensemble forecast assimilation technique is developed in order to improve the forecast skill in the nonlinear dynamical system. The forecast assimilation is an analysis technique in which a true value contained in each ensemble forecast is accumulated into a single assimilated forecast such as a data assimilation. For the experiments, we used a Lorenz model, and a Ka...

We propose new tests of forecast optimality that exploit information contained in multi-horizon forecasts. In addition to implying zero forecast bias and zero autocorrelation in forecast errors, we show that forecast optimality under squared error loss also implies testable restrictions on second moments of the data ordered at long and short forecast horizons. In particular, the variance of the...

Techniques for estimating cloud motion and stability for intra-hour forecasting using a ground-based sky imaging system are presented. A variational optical flow (VOF) technique was used to determine the sub-pixel accuracy of cloud motion for every pixel. Cloud locations up to 15 min ahead were forecasted by inverse mapping of the cloud map. A month of image data captured by a sky imager at UC ...

Self-Esteem and Earnings Recent research in economics suggests a positive association between self-esteem and earnings. A major problem in this literature is that from simple cross-sectional wage regressions it is not possible to conclude that self-esteem has a causal impact on earnings. While classical measurement error leads to an attenuation bias, reverse causality and omitted variable are l...