in this paper, forecasting error for state tax revenues is assessed. for this purpose, using the regression equation, statistical index, and mean percent error, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and error analysis of tile inequality coefficients are applied on anticipated revenue from taxes on legal entities, income taxes, wealth tax, taxes on imports and taxes on consumption ...

W correlate analysts’ forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. We find that when sentiment is high, analysts’ forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings and long-term earnings growth are relatively more optimistic for “uncertain” or “difficult-to-value” firms. Adding these forecast errors to a regression of stock returns on sentiment absorbs a sizable fraction of the explanatory...

In this study we examine different methodologies to estimate earnings. More specifically, we evaluate the viability of Genetic Programming as both a forecasting model estimator and a forecastcombining methodology. When we compare the performance of traditional mechanical forecasting (ARIMA) models and models developed using Genetic Programming we observe that Genetic Programming can be used to ...

We carefully construct measures of earnings forecast accuracy and recommendation profitability that enable us to examine the association between the qualities of these two key outputs of individual security analysts. We find that analysts with superior earnings forecasts issue significantly more profitable recommendations than those with less accurate forecasts. The average annual recommendatio...

Equity analysts’ target price can be decomposed into two components: the earnings forecast and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast, with the former containing shortterm earnings news and the latter containing news about long-term earnings growth and discount rates. Using a large database of target prices from 1997 to 2004, we document that both components are important in driving target ...

This paper projects lifetime Social Security earnings until retirement using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to Social Security records of annual earnings from 1951 through 1993. We first develop, estimate and test gender-specific multiple regression models of ten-year earnings intervals using the matched 1984 SIPP panel. We find strong relationships pred...

This paper studies whether managers use investor information they learn from the stock market when making forward-looking disclosures. Using annual management earnings forecasts from 1996 to 2010, I find that the association between forecast revisions and stock price changes over the revision periods is stronger when there is more informed trading. Further, the effect of investor information on...