The contiguous rain area (CRA) method for spatial forecast verification is a features-based approach that evaluates the properties of forecast rain systems, namely, their location, size, intensity, and finescale pattern. It is one of many recently developed spatial verification approaches that are being evaluated as part of a Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project. To bet...

cash flow forecasting is an indispensable tool for construction companies, and is essential for the survivalof any contractor at all stages of the work. the time available for a detailed pre-tender cash flow forecast is oftenlimited. therefore, contractors require simpler and quicker techniques which would enable them to forecast cash flowwith reasonable accuracy. forecasting s-curves in constr...

Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally done using deterministic values of power system parameters considering a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties. The uncertainty sources that are modeled in the proposed stochastic framework consist of contingencie...

In this comment, we answer the question posed in Svensson’s (2000) paper “Does the P* model provide any rationale for monetary targeting?” – in contrast to him – in the affirmative. We argue that a strategy of monetary targeting can be rationalised within the P* framework. Furthermore, we demonstrate that money growth targeting is a special form of inflation forecast targeting based on a ‘limit...

We simulate forecast errors with different variance-covariance structures based on macroeconomic data. The simulations are used to compare the performance of different forecast combining techniques.

This paper analyzes how firm-specific forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011 relate to firms' investment propensity. Our findings reveal that asymmetries arise depending on the size and direction error. The propensity declines if realized situation is worse than expected. However, do not adjust better expected suggesting uncertainty component error...