This paper presents the Matlab package DeCo (Density Combination) which is based on the paper by Billio et al. (2013) where a constructive Bayesian approach is presented for combining predictive densities originating from different models or other sources of information. The combination weights are time-varying and may depend on past predictive forecasting performances and other learning mechan...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public fi nances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term e...

Abstract The aim of the paper is to compare forecasting performance a class statedependent autoregressive (SDAR) models for univariate time series with two alternative families nonlinear models, such as SETAR and GARCH models. study conducted on US GDP growth rate using quarterly data. Two methods forecast comparison are employed. first method consists in evaluation average by measures root mea...

Most economists intuitively consider purchasing power parity (PPP) to be true. Nevertheless, quite surprisingly, the empirical literature is not very supportive for PPP. In this paper, however, we …nd evidence in favor of PPP using a new test. The test is embedded in a Markov regime-switching model for the exchange rate, because earlier papers have shown that this model describes the data bette...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public fi nances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term e...

Central banks and other forecasters have become increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts. However, recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility — such as the Great Moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with greater variation in energy prices and the deep global recession — pose significant challenges to density forecasting. Accordingly, th...

We evaluate various models’relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and in‡ation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the models’relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the models’ relative performance has, in fact, changed dramatically over time, both for revised and real-time data, and investigate possible factors that...

This paper studies the role of ‡uctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at di¤erent time scales for predicting stock returns and explore the channels through which returns are predicted. Using U.S. quarterly and international monthly data, we …nd that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better predictors of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than the aggregat...

on one hand, oil is the greatest energy resource in the world and, on the other hand, because of the role of oil revenue in the economic of oil producer countries, such as iran,it is vital for these countries. so it is necessary to recognize different affective parameters on oil market for these countries. in this research, we try to forecast oil price as an important variable in world wide oil...

JEL Classification Code(s): J 31, J 71) "Perceptions of Discrimination, Effort to Obtain Psychological Balance, and Relative Wages: Can We Infer a Happiness Gradient?" There is a substantial literature that finds a linkage between happiness and relative economic well being as measured by earnings or wages. There is also a well documented racial gap in wages. One explanation for this is disparat...