In this work we combine Genetic Programming (GP) and intelligent agents to build a realistic foreign exchange currency market simulator. GP is used to express and evolve trading strategies. In the paper we analyse the decisions made in the design of the simulator with respect to authenticity of the representation and the efficiency of the system. A number of experimental results are also reported.

This paper investigates the time-varying nature of expectation formation rules for institutional investors in the foreign exchange market. Using a dataset of survey expectations for four exchange rates, we first distinguish three different general rules. We find a momentum rule, a fundamental rule, and a rule that takes advantage of interest differentials between countries. Apart from heterogen...

In a recent paper, Baillie and Bollerslev (1989) using daily data from 1980 to 1985, identified six common stochastic trends in a vector of seven nominal exchange rates implying the existence of one cointegrating vector. Cointegration implies that (Granger) causality must run in at least one direction, that is, at least one of the exchange rates is predictable using current available informatio...

This paper investigates the presence and characteristics of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency, obtained from Reuters on special order. We provide evidence on the frequency, size and duration of round-trip and one-way arbitrage opportu...

This paperÕs estimates and tests of Fed intervention pro®ts are the ®rst that explicitly adjust for foreign-exchange risk premia; failure to adjust may grossly a€ect estimated pro®ts. Pro®ts appear economically and statistically signi®cant, whether risk premia are modeled as time-constant or as appreciationÕs market beta depending on Fed intervention. The estimates are sensitive to the method o...

This study constructs a panel threshold regression model to explore the price impact of foreign institutional herding of firms listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange during January 2000 to June 2008. Our panel threshold model is constructed to explore the price impact of foreign institutional investors’ herding in the Taiwan stock market after controlling the firm size. By examining the presence o...

Considering the time-series ARIMA(p,d, q) model and fuzzy regression model, this paper develops a fuzzy ARIMA (FARIMA) model and applies it to forecasting the exchange rate of NT dollars to US dollars. This model includes interval models with interval parameters and the possibility distribution of future values is provided by FARIMA. This model makes it possible for decision makers to forecast ...

Participants of an experimental foreign exchange market forecast an exchange rate with an unknown price reaction function. Aggregate demand is derived from their own forecasts and random shocks. Our experimental results indicate that the expectations of the subjects tend to be coordinated on a common prediction strategy. This strategy is best described as a trendextrapolative, destabilizing exp...

Pinto (1990) in World Bank Economic Review 3, 321-338, showed that unification of official and 'parallel ' market exchange rates may lead to an increase in steady-state inflation, because of the fiscal impact of real official exchange rate changes. This paper shows how this, and other comparative static and stability results in Pinto (1990), are reversed under the assumption that official excha...

A numerical model for the foreign exchange (FX) market is developed and its implementation on a distributed memory parallel computer is discussed. The model considers a description of the market at the level of the real agents, such as traders and market makers. These actors are represented by interacting computerized agents. Parallelism allows the study of systems with many actors and realisti...