One of the most important issues in corporate finance is whether dividend changes contain information about future earnings and profitability. Although dividend signaling theories imply that dividend increases signal better prospects (e.g., Bhattacharya 1979; John and Williams 1985; andMiller and Rock 1985), many empirical studies have failed to support this idea. Studies by Watts (1973), Goned...

In fundamental analysis, it is customary to interpret an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative costs to sales (the SG&A cost ratio) between two periods as a negative signal about future profitability and firm value. Implicit in this interpretation is an expectation that SG&A costs should normally move proportionately with increases or decreases in revenues, and that an i...

This study provides new insight into the market’s allocation of dividend-related and capital gains-based returns on common stock around earnings announcement surprises. To the extent that investors’ cash flow forecasts are revised as earnings surprises occur, Americus Trust prime and score returns reflect changes in respective future dividends and capital gains. About 70% of the value gain from...

This article estimates the effects of 50 years of steady growth in incomes on poverty rates among the elderly. It assumes that the poverty threshold continues to be adjusted for inflation but not for increases in real incomes. Simulations with the March 1998 Current Population Survey indicate that if the benefit rules for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) are not changed an...

Existing studies show that intra-firm variation in earnings announcement speeds correlates with earnings news, such that firms are more likely to decrease (increase) the speed of announcing bad (good) earnings news relative to their fiscal period end. We examine firms’ “expected abnormal reporting speeds” not just in relation to their own past behaviors, but also in relation to other firms anno...

This study examines whether patent citation impact, a leading indicator of technology firms’ innovation capabilities, is associated with future earnings and whether this association is appropriately reflected in stock prices and analysts’ earnings forecasts of patent-rich companies. The results indicate that change of patent citation impact is positively associated with future earnings, particu...

This study examines whether patent citation impact, a leading indicator of technology firms’ innovation capabilities, is associated with future earnings and whether this association is appropriately reflected in stock prices and analysts’ earnings forecasts of patent-rich companies. The results indicate that change of patent citation impact is positively associated with future earnings, particu...

Quarterly earnings guidance — managers’ public forecasts of forthcoming earnings — is widespread yet highly controversial. A recent position paper by the CFA Institute and the Business Roundtable emphatically calls on managers to ‘‘end the practice of providing quarterly earnings guidance’’ (CFA Institute 2006, 2). Similarly, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (2007) publicly implored managers to sto...

Building on the research on immigrant earnings reviewed in the first article of this series, "Research on Immigrant Earnings," the preceding article, "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models," linked research results to various issues essential for incorporating immigrant earnings into microsimulation models. The discussions of that article were in terms of a closed system. That is, it exam...

The use of price–earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that these ratios should be useful in forecasting future dividend growth, future earnings growth, or future...