This study examines the performance of the S&P 100 implied volatility as a forecast of future stock market volatility. The results indicate that the implied volatility is an upward biased forecast, but also that it contains relevant information regarding future volatility. The implied volatility dominates the historical volatility rate in terms of ex ante forecasting power, and its forecast err...

We study the dynamic relation between daily stock returns and innovations in option-derived implied volatilities. By simultaneously analyzing innovations in index-level and firm-level implied volatilities, we distinguish between innovations in systematic and idiosyncratic volatility in an effort to better understand the asymmetric volatility phenomenon. Our results indicate that the relation be...

This paper studies implied volatility smirk quantitatively. We first propose a new concept of smirkness, which is defined as a triplet of at-the-money implied volatility, skewness (slope at the money) and smileness (curvature at the money) of implied volatility – moneyness curve. The moneyness is the logarithm of the strike price over the forward price, normalized by the standard deviation of e...

Abstract In this paper, we characterize two deterministic implied volatility models, defined by assuming that either the per-delta or the per-strike implied volatility surface has a deterministic evolution. Practitioners have recently proposed these two models to describe two regimes of implied volatility (see Derman (1999 Risk 4 55–9)). In an arbitrage-free sticky-delta model, we show that the...

We study specific nonlinear transformations of the Black-Scholes implied volatility to show remarkable properties of the volatility surface. Model-free bounds on the implied volatility skew are given. Pricing formulas for the European options which are written in terms of the implied volatility are given. In particular, we prove elegant formulas for the fair strikes of the variance swap and the...

A better understanding of the empirical dynamics of Black-Scholes implied volatility surface has long been of considerable interest to both practitioners and academics. Basing on some findings about the ad hoc Black-Scholes valuation approach suggested in Dumas, Flemming and Whaley (1998), this essay studies the empirical performance of various volatility function forms that characterize the re...

The widespread practice of quoting option prices in terms of their Black-Scholes implied volatilities (IVs) in no way implies that market participants believe underlying returns to be lognormal. On the contrary, the variation of IVs across option strike and term to maturity, which is widely referred to as the volatility surface, can be substantial. In this brief review, we highlight some empiri...

Implied volatility surfaces are central tools used for pricing options. This thesis treats the topic of their construction. The main purpose is to uncover the most appropriate methodology for constructing implied volatility surfaces from discrete data and evaluate how well it performs. First some methods and techniques in use for such surface constructing are presented. Then the most attractive...

Research has consistently found that implied volatility is a conditionally biased predictor of realized volatility across asset markets. This paper evaluates explanations for this bias in the market for options on foreign exchange futures. No solution considered—including a model of priced volatility risk—explains the conditional bias found in implied volatility. Further, while implied volatili...

In this note, we develop stock option price approximations for a model which takes both the risk o default and the stochastic volatility into account. We also let the intensity of defaults be influenced by the volatility. We show that it might be possible to infer the risk neutral default intensity from the stock option prices. Our option price approximation has a rich implied volatility surfac...