Using quantitative survey data from the Swedish Consumer Tendency Survey as well as a unique data set on media reports about inflation, we analyze the formation process of inflation perceptions and expectations as well as interrelations between the variables. Throughout the analysis, the role of media reports about inflation is emphasized and results for the low inflation period January 1998 to...

In conventional scenario of thermal inflation, the requirement from the reheating temperature puts a lower bound on the mass of the inflaton field. At the same time, the mass of the inflaton field and the height of the potential during thermal inflation is intimately related. With these conditions, the conventional models for thermal inflation are quite restricted. Naively, one may expect that ...

Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which professional forecasters exhibit conservatism in their announced inflation forecasts. Conservatism occurs as a result of a secondary objective captured in the forecaster’s loss function: they would like to avoid having large forecast errors, but also would like to avoid making large revisions to previously announced forecasts. As a result of for...

We study ‘hilltop’ inflation, in which inflation takes place near a maximum of the potential. Viewed as a model of inflation after the observable Universe leaves the horizon (observable inflation) hilltop inflation is rather generic. If the potential steepens monotonically, observable hilltop inflation gives a tiny tensor fraction (r ∼ 0.002). The usual F and D-term models may easily be transmu...

We point out that for a class of ‘new inflation’ models in supergravity the required initial value of the inflaton field is dynamically set if there is another inflation (‘pre-inflation’) before the ‘new inflation’. We study the dynamics of both inflatons by taking a hybrid inflation model for the ‘pre-inflation’ as an example. We find out that our ‘new inflation’ model provides reheating tempe...

This paper focuses on internal and external factors, which influence the inflation rate in developing countries. A monetary model of inflation rate, capable of incorporating both monetary and fiscal policies as well as other internal and external factors, was developed and tested on Iranian data. It was found that, over the long run, a higher exchange rate leads to a higher price and that the f...

a number of countries, including Australia, over the past decade. The adoption of a framework that focuses explicitly on inflation reflects the growing realization that the major contribution that monetary policy can make to economic growth and welfare in the long run is the maintenance of a low and stable inflation rate. Empirical evidence confirms the detrimental effects of higher inflation o...

! Average inflation below target in Sweden 1997-2011 ! Average inflation expectations (Prospera) close to target 1997-2011 Questions to be answered: ! If inflation expectations stuck at target when average inflation deviates from target, non-vertical long-run Phillips curve? ! If lower average inflation, higher average unemployment? ! If estimates of sustainable unemployment rate based on histo...

We study ‘hilltop’ inflation, in which inflation takes place near a maximum of the potential. Viewed as a model of inflation after the observable Universe leaves the horizon (observable inflation) hilltop inflation is rather generic. If the potential steepens monotonically, observable hilltop inflation gives a tiny tensor fraction (r ∼ 0.002). The usual F and D-term models may easily be transmu...

I develop an extension of the standard New Keynesian model to monetary policy regime switching to study the impact of uncertainty around the future inflation target. First, I fully characterize how the responses of current inflation and output to inflation target uncertainty depend on the monetary policy rule. If monetary policy is passive, inflation may increase far beyond the anticipated incr...