The cosmological implication of a double inflation model with hybrid + new inflations in supergravity is studied. The hybrid inflation drives an inflaton for new inflation close to the origin through supergravity effects and new inflation naturally occurs. If the total e-fold number of new inflation is smaller than ∼ 60, both inflations produce cosmologically relevant density fluctuations. Both...

This paper studies long-run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment. When central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated, agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change in their econometric model by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares. Inf...

It has been, recently pointed out that the initial value problem in new inflation models is naturally solved by supergravity effects if there exists a pre-inflation before the new inflation. We study this double inflation model in details and find that density fluctuations on small cosmological scales are much larger than those on large scales due to peculiar property of the new inflation. We s...

China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our e...

country mean of inflation exceeded the median for each decade. This property reflects the skewing of inflation rates to the right, as shown in Figure 1. That is, there are a number of outliers with positive inflation rates of large magnitude, but none with negative inflation rates of high magnitude. Because this skewness increased in the 1980s, the mean inflation rate rose from the 1970s to the...

This paper assesses the effect of expected inflation and inflation risk on interest rates within the Fisher hypothesis framework. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic models are used to estimate the conditional variability of inflation as a proxy for risk. With the UK quarterly data from 1958:4 to 1994:4, we found that both the expected inflation and the conditional variability of inflati...

In recent years, members of Congress and academia have repeatedly urged the U.S. Treasury to issue some portion of its debt in the form of inflation indexed bonds. With an indexed bond, the interest and maturity value are adjusted by the rate of inflation over the life of the bond. Because the cash flow of an indexed bond is adjusted for inflation, the bond’s real value does not vary with infla...

The most obvious characteristic of inflation targetting is an explicit numerical inflation target. There is also a logical and efficient decision process, which I have called forecast targetting. The central bank makes forecasts of inflation and other variables, such as the output gap, and then chooses the interest rate so that these forecasts “look good”, that is, are consistent with the objec...

The relationship between short term and long term inflation expectations in the US and the UK is investigated with a focus on inflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows for the uncovering of the relationship between inflation pass through and various explanatory variables. Empirical results ...

We investigate the recently proposed natural double inflation model in supergravity. Chaotic inflation first takes place by virtue of the Nambu-Goldstonelike shift symmetry. During chaotic inflation, an initial value of second inflation (new inflation) is set, which is adequately far from the local maximum of the potential due to the small linear term in the Kähler potential. Then, primordial f...