Monetary policy affects both real variables, such as employment, unemployment and output, and nominal variables, such as nominal interest and inflation rates. For close to a decade, the principal focus of monetary policy has been on inflation. During a recession, or when one appears imminent, the state of real variables such as GDP growth has been a paramount consideration, but at other times, ...

I develop an analytical general-equilibrium model to explain economic sources of businesscycle pattern of aggregate stock market returns. With concave production functions and capital accumulation, a technology shock has a pro-cyclical direct effect and a counter-cyclical indirect effect on expected returns. The indirect effect, reflecting the “feedback” effect of consumers’ behavior on asset r...

This paper studies a two-sector New Keynesian model that captures the hump-shaped response of non-durable and durable spending to a monetary shock when non-durable prices are sticky and durable goods are flexibly priced. Based on the estimated parameters, we show that habit formation and investment adjustment costs are not sufficient to generate the gradual response of non-durable and durable s...

One-year-ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries are analysed. RMSE was large: 1.9 % for growth and 1.6 % for inflation. Six (11) OECD and 10 (7) institute growth forecast records were significantly better than an average growth forecast (the current year forecast). All full record-length inflation forecasts were significantly ...

We analyze the impact of news (information shocks) in economies where liquidity plays a role. While we also consider news about real factors, like productivity, one motivation is that central bank announcements evidently affect markets, as taken for granted by advocates of forward guidance policy. The dynamic effects can be complicated, with information about monetary policy or real factors aff...

Using simulation and analysis we show that agent-based auction-cleared automated markets can be stabilized using only completely myopic agents (without value traders), if these naı̈ve agents are provided with a price signal that reflects order book information. This demonstrates that information in the order book is extremely valuable, that prediction can be replaced by better instantaneous info...

The remarkable stability of low domestic inflation in many countries requires explanation. In this paper, a number of competing hypotheses are evaluated on a stand-alone basis, and all are found to be inadequate. This includes the view that this outcome has been solely the result of more effective disinflationary monetary policies. However, a combination of these hypotheses (including a signifi...

This note makes two comments on recent NNS models. First, it disputes the way physical capital has been introduced into these models arguing that this leads to the dubious postulate that the cost of adjusting physical capital stock is an order of magnitude lower than the cost of changing prices. Second it warns against a possible logical inconsistency whereby calibrated NNS models are implicitl...

we have studied the relation between bank deposit rates and house prices in iran. for that, we have run some var models, using the following variables: real deposit rates (including 1 and 5 years deposit rates), money supply (including the high powered money and the liquidity), gdp, housing services index, and number of licenses for new houses. our results show that a reduction in the deposit r...

This paper provides new empirical evidence that bears on the efficacy of unconventional monetary policies when main policy rate is negative. When a negative interest (NIRP) deployed in concert with forward guidance (FG) and quantitative easing (QE), identification impacts these instruments challenging. We propose novel approach seeks to overcome this challenge by combining dense, controlled eve...