Uncertainty in the prediction of future weather is commonly assessed through the use of forecast ensembles that employ a numerical weather prediction model in distinct variants. Statistical postprocessing can correct for biases in the numerical model and improves calibration. We propose a Bayesian version of the standard ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) postprocessing method, in which sp...

In this paper we introduce a new method for performing computational inference on log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCP). Contrary to current practice, we do not approximate by a counting process on a partition of the domain, but rather attack the point process likelihood directly. In order to do this, we use the continuously specified Markovian random fields introduced by Lindgren et al. (2011). Th...

This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of dengue risk and its association with socio-environmental conditions. This was an ecological study of the counts of autochthonous dengue cases in the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil, in the year 2007, aggregated according to 47 coverage areas of municipal health centers. Spatial models for mapping diseases were constructed...

In industrial hygiene a worker’s exposure to chemical, physical and biological agents is increasingly being modeled using deterministic physical models. However, predicting exposure in real workplace settings is challenging and approaches that simply regress on a physical model (e.g. straightforward non-linear regression) are less effective as they do not account for biases attributable, at lea...

The surface protein InlB of the bacterial pathogen Listeria monocytogenes is required for inducing phagocytosis in various nonphagocytic mammalian cell types in vitro. InlB causes tyrosine phosphorylation of host cell adaptor proteins, activation of phosphoinositide 3-kinase, and rearrangements of the actin cytoskeleton. These events lead to phagocytic uptake of the bacterium by the host cell. ...

Modeling wildfire activity is crucial for informing science-based risk management and understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of fire-prone ecosystems worldwide. Models help disentangle relative influences different factors, understand predictability, provide insights into specific events. Here, we develop Firelihood, a two-component, Bayesian, hierarchically structured, probabilistic model d...

Listeria monocytogenes, an emerging foodborne pathogen, can cause in the population at risk severe infections that are associated with high case fatality rates. A total of 93 L. monocytogenes strains isolated from different patients in Switzerland from July 2011 to September 2013 were further characterized. Septicemia was reported for 74.2% of the patients, meningitis for 10.8%, and abortion fo...

Internalin is a surface protein that mediates entry of Listeria monocytogenes EGD into epithelial cells expressing the cell adhesion molecule human E-cadherin or its chicken homolog, L-CAM, which act as receptors for internalin. After observing that entry of L. monocytogenes LO28 into S180 fibroblasts, in contrast to that of EGD, did not increase after transfection with L-CAM, we examined both ...