We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom over the period 1985-2004. The proposed model describes UK inflation dynamics considerably better than does...

This paper argues that the stock market crash of 2008, triggered by a collapse in house prices, caused the Great Recession. The paper has three parts. First, it provides evidence of a high correlation between the value of the stock market and the unemployment rate in U.S. data since 1929. Second, it compares a new model of the economy developed in recent papers and books by Farmer, with a class...

This paper develops a small, analytically tractable New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and government debt dynamics. We show that, in the absence of Ricardian equivalence, the latter channel is of conceptual importance for the design of monetary and Þscal policy rules consistent with determinate equilibrium dynamics. Our model can be used to see how deviations from Ricardian equivale...

It is no exaggeration to say that Capital Theory is fundamental to everything else in Austrian Economics. It lies at its core, implicit in discussions of monetary policy, the business cycle, the entrepreneur, and the subjectivity of value and expectations. Prior to the Keynesian revolution it was Capital Theory for which the Austrian School was most known among mainstream economists. With the a...

This paper examines the short-run relationship between the income distributionand finance-growth regimes using a simple post-Keynesian demand-driven model. While each mechanism of wage-led and profit-led growth has been revealed, its relationship with debt-led and debt-burdened growth, and vice versa, is yet to be clarified. This is because the argument on these growth regimes has been develope...

We build a New Keynesian model of the business cycle with sticky prices and real wage rigidities motivated by efficiency wages of the gift exchange variety. Compared to a standard sticky price model, our Fair Wage model provides an explanation for structural unemployment and generates more plausible labor market dynamics — notably accounting for the low correlation between wages and employment....

Let me first briefly place it in the broader context of current macroeconomic research. First-generation new-Keynesian models, of the type analyzed by Woodford in his well-known book (2003), were based on a few central imperfections, namely monopolistic competition to allow for non-trivial market power and price setting, and nominal rigidities; their purpose was to show how shifts in demand cou...

The workhorse of modern macroeconomics is the New Keynesian model. This model assumes that monetary policy is transmitted through the path of the shortterm nominal interest rate. Money, if it is included at all, is relegated to an inconsequential role in monetary policy analysis. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we summarize the literature on the existence and role of money that is ...

We examine the US state-level pattern of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) spending. We relate spending to (1) Keynesian determinants of countercyclical policy, (2) congressional power and dominance, and (3) presidential electoral vote importance. We find that the ARRA is, in practice, poorly designed countercyclical stimulus. After controlling for political variables, coefficients ...

This article seeks to check the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve in Tunisia for the 1993–2012 period, relying on a hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve modeled via a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model with endogenous variables. We estimate this model using the nonlinear instrumental variables. The empirical results corroborate the new Keynesian assumption ofprice rigidity and s...