We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic volatility process. We develop a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method to obtain efficient estimates of...

We calculate the NAIRU for the U.S. in a framework where inflation and the unemployment rate can respond to each other. The NAIRU is defined as the component of the actual unemployment rate that is uncorrelated with inflation in the long run. Using a structural VAR approach, the NAIRU and core inflation can be estimated simultaneously. Our estimation results show that the NAIRU falls dramatical...

abstract in this paper, the effect of foreign sector macro-variable on inflation dynamics and firms’ pricing behavior has been investigated in the context of a small open economy new keynesian phillips curve. this curve is derived and estimated for a developing oil-exporting economy suffering from dutch disease. this version of nkpc is an extension of leith and malley’s (2007) small open econom...

Recent increases in pathology costs per scheme member are a concern to medical schemes and pathologists alike. To better understand the observed increasing costs, the National Pathology Group commissioned Prognosys to analyse the trends affecting these increases. We found that these increases are driven by inflation, increases in utilisation, and redistribution of the burden of cost. The identi...

Many central banks conduct monetary policy according to an inflation targeting framework, which requires that some measure of inflation be chosen as the target. One approach would be to use an index of goods and services whose prices are market determined and not subject to frequent, idiosyncratic, and transitory changes. That could be an index based on the personal consumption expenditures pri...

Inflation is an important phenomenon in the national economy, and central banks have made it one of their tasks to control inflation. The core research object this paper causes inflation China since entered 21st century, Entropy-weighting Method used construct a comprehensive indicator system, including 5 different factors contributing inflation, then analyze using VAR model. following conclusi...