a central problem ill empirical macroeconomics is to determine when and how much the exchange rate is misaligned. this paper clarifies and calculates the concept of’ the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector auto regression (var) model. by imposing long—run restrictions on a var model for iran, lour structural shocks are identified: nominal demand, real demand, supply and oi...

This paper employs disaggregated manufacturing data to investigate the causes of the time delay between an increase in oil prices and the following slowdown in economic activity. VAR results show that, unlike aggregate GDP, the effect of an oil price shock on new motor vehicles production shows up immediately and is statistically significantly. After one quarter, similar patterns are observed f...

John Taylor has produced a comprehensive and insightful paper. He begins by reviewing what he calls the “Great Inflation,” the period of the 1970s and early 1980s. Following Brad De Long’s observation that by the early 1970s, well before the oil shocks, baseline U.S. inflation was already in the 4 percent to 5 percent range, John Taylor rejects the hypothesis that the oil price shocks of the pe...

A model with costly adjustment of production and costly inventories implies that wholesale gasoline prices will respond with a lag to crude oil cost shocks. Unlike explanations that rely upon menu costs, imperfect information, or long-term buyer/seller relationships, this model also predicts that futures prices for gasoline will adjust incompletely to crude oil price shocks that occur close to ...

The price of a barrel of crude oil doubled within a few months last year. Although prices have been easing lately, for those who paid more than $3 for a gallon of gas, the memory is not likely to fade quickly. But worries about higher gas prices don’t end at the pump. Oil price shocks—sudden and sharp increases in the price of oil and its derivatives like gasoline—are associated in the popular ...

Although a lot of the empirical research have studied the relationship between changes of oil price and economic activity, it is surprising that little research has been conducted on the relationship between oil price shocks and the Greater China region (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan). Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to apply a detail monthly data from 1997/7 to 2008/9 to fill up this ...

How should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock? The New Keynesian literature has concluded that ensuring complete price stability is the optimal thing to do. In contrast, this paper argues that a meaningful trade-off between stabilizing inflation and the welfare relevant output gap arises in a distorted economy once one recognizes (i) that oil (energy) cannot be easily substituted ...

We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following uptur...

The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policies in selected OPEC countries during 1980-2015. In this regard, the heterogeneous dynamic reaction to structural shock was examined using Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) technique. Based on the findings, the effect of oil price shocks on discretionary fiscal policy was positiv...