in this paper, a novel hybrid model based on neural network and game theory is proposed to support the analyzers in oil market. in this model, first the neural network is utilized to learn the oil prices associated with opec production level and usa imports level. then the learned neural network is applied by a game model. finally the nash equilibrium points of the game present the optimum deci...

According to “Hotelling rule” price of an “exhaustible resource” exceeds its marginal cost of production in perfect competition equilibrium by amount equal to the opportunity cost of depleting the resource now rather than next periods. This cost is called “scarcity rent”. Oil price exceeds its marginal extraction costs significantly. This can be attributed two different sources: effect of scarc...

The relationship between oil reserves and oil extraction has recently become of interest to research community. Current empirical literature lacks an identification strategy that addresses endogeneity problem. This study takes advantage of (arguably) exogenous reserves discoveries to identify the effect of size of reserves on oil production. Our findings show that although in general oil produc...

For several decades, petroleum has been a commodity of vital impor-tance to the global economy, in which a number of interesting marketphenomena has occurred. This monograph represents my efforts todescribe several of these phenomenon, along with a few other elementsof the oil market. My focus is on elements related to the extractionof petroleum, and the interactions between...

One of the objectives of OPEC is the security of demand for the crude oil exports of its members. Achieving this objective is imperative with the projected decline in OECD countries' crude oil demand among other crude oil demand shocks. This paper focuses on determining the external crude oil demand security risks of OPEC member states. In assessing these risks, this study introduces two indexe...

A range of energy-economy models forecast losses to members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should the Kyoto Protocol come into force. These forecasts are a powerful influence in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. They are used by OPEC to advance the agenda on the impacts of response measures, covertly arguing for compensation for...