In 2011, Lake Erie experienced a record-setting harmful algal bloom (HAB), posing significant risks to ecosystem services, including its $1.5 billion sport fishing industry. Using a mail survey of 3,000 Ohio recreational anglers and a choice experiment, this article provides the first empirical evidence in the US to link HABs to damages to Great Lakes recreational anglers. We account for the he...

A challenge for the efficient operation of power systems and wind farms is the occurrence of wind power ramps, which are sudden large changes in the power output from a wind farm. This paper considers the probabilistic forecasting of a ramp event, defined as exceedance beyond a specified threshold. We directly model the exceedance probability using autoregressive logit models fitted to the chan...

When design decisions are informed by consumer choice models, uncertainty in the choice model and its share predictions creates uncertainty for the designer. We take a first step in investigating the variation in and accuracy of market share predictions by characterizing fit and forecast accuracy of multinomial logit, mixed logit, and nested logit models over a variety of utility function speci...

Pregibit: A Family of Discrete Choice Models The pregibit discrete choice model is built on a distribution that allows symmetry or asymmetry and thick tails, thin tails or no tails. Thus the model is much richer than the traditional models that are typically used to study behavior that generates discrete choice outcomes. Pregibit nests logit, approximately nests probit, loglog, cloglog and goss...

A growing body of empirical literature uses structurally-derived economic models to study the nature of competition and to measure explicitly the economic impact of strategic policies. While several approaches have been proposed, the discrete choice demand system has experienced wide usage. The heterogeneous, or ‘‘mixed’’, logit in particular has been widely applied due to its parsimonious stru...

A Iogit vector model and a logit ideal point model are presented for external analysis of paired comparison preference judgments aggregated over a homogeneous group. The logit vector model is hierarchically nested within the logit ideal point model so that statistical tests are available to distinguish between these two models. Generalized least squares estimation procedures are developed to ac...

The random coefficients multinomial choice logit model, also known as the mixed logit, has been widely used in empirical choice analysis for the last thirty years. We prove that the distribution of random coefficients in the multinomial logit model is nonparametrically identified. Our approach requires variation in product characteristics only locally and does not rely on the special regressors...