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Testing for Granger non-causality over varying quantile levels could be used to measure and infer dynamic linkages, enabling the identification of quantiles for which causality is relevant, or not. However, dynamic quantiles in financial application settings are clearly affected by heteroscedasticity, as well as the exogenous and endogenous variables under consideration. GARCH-type dynamics are...

These notes are intended to provide the reader with knowledge of basic concepts of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and hopefully also some intuition about how MCMC works. For more thorough accounts of MCMC the reader is referred to e.g. Gilks et al. (1996), Gamerman (1997), or Robert and Casella (1999). Suppose that we are interested in generating samples from a target probability distribution ...

This paper is intended to provide a numerical algorithm based on random sampling for solving the linear Volterra integral equations of the second kind. This method is a Monte Carlo (MC) method based on the simulation of a continuous Markov chain. To illustrate the usefulness of this technique we apply it to a test problem. Numerical results are performed in order to show the efficiency and accu...

Introduction: One major problem in analyzing epidemic data is the lack of data and high dependency among the available data, which is due to the fact that the epidemic process is not directly observable. Methods: One method for epidemic data analysis to estimate the desired epidemic parameters, such as disease transmission rate and recovery rate, is data ...

The contribution presents to analyses and comparison of the recursive (sliding window) Bayesian autoregressive normalized change-point detector (RBACDN) and the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method (RJMCMC) when they are used for the localization of signal changes (change-point detection). The choice of priors and parameter setting for the RJMCMC and the RBACDN are discussed. The eva...

We consider and explore structural breaks in a day-by-day time series of civilian casualties for the current Iraq conflict: an undertaking of potential interest to scholars of international relations, comparative politics, and American politics. We review Bayesian change-point techniques already used by political methodologists before advocating and briefly describing the use of reversible-jump...

Current reporting of results based on Markov chain Monte Carlo computations could be improved. In particular, a measure of the accuracy of the resulting estimates is rarely reported. Thus we have little ability to objectively assess the quality of the reported estimates. We address this issue in that we discuss why Monte Carlo standard errors are important, how they can be easily calculated in ...