This paper suggests a new procedure for evaluating the fit of a dynamic structural economic model. The procedure begins by augmenting the variables in the model with just enough stochastic error so that the model can exactly match the second moments of the actual data. Measures of fit for the model can then be constructed on the basis of the size of this error. The procedure is applied to a sta...

A new class of statistical models is proposed for the analysis of longitudinal data, especially those from growth studies. The models are all derived from a simple univariate two-level polynomial model. It is shown that they make efficient use of available data, and can handle a very wide range of problems. They have several important advantages over existing procedures.

We argue, that generative probabilistic models should be used to detect user activities, and we discuss two approaches to create those model from symbolic descriptions.

While recent recordings from neural populations show beyond-pairwise, or higher-order, correlations (HOC), we have little understanding of how HOC arise from network interactions and of how they impact encoded information. Here, we show that input nonlinearities imply HOC in spin-glass-type statistical models. We then discuss one such model with parametrized pairwise- and higher-order interacti...

Ecological risk assessment at the population level often involves predicting the effects of a particular change in the land-use patterns on the viability of native species. A common method of addressing such questions is modeling the metapopulation dynamics of the species in the landscape. However, the landscape and, as a result, the spatial structure of the metapopulation usually do not remain...

We analyze the variability in the x-ray lightcurves of the black hole candidate Cygnus X-1 by linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods. While a linear model describes the overall second order properties of the observed data well, surrogate data analysis reveals a significant deviation from linearity. We discuss the relation between shot noise models usually applied to analyze these dat...

We investigated how people interpret conditionals and how stable their interpretation is over a long series of trials. Participants were shown the colored patterns on each side of a 6-sided die and were asked how sure they were that a conditional holds of the side landing upward when the die is randomly thrown. Participants were presented with 71 trials consisting of all combinations of binary ...

Modeling count data from sexual behavioral outcomes involves many challenges, especially when the data exhibit a preponderance of zeros and overdispersion. In particular, the popular Poisson log-linear model is not appropriate for modeling such outcomes. Although alternatives exist for addressing both issues, they are not widely and effectively used in sex health research, especially in HIV pre...