a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: C52 C53 Q47 Keywords: Oil prices Futures markets Stochastic processes Kalman filter Forecasting Stochastic process models of commodity prices are important inputs in energy investment evaluation and planning problems. In this paper, we focus on modeling and forecasting the long-term price level, since it is the dominant factor in many such applications....

This paper analyzes the dynamic eff ects of anticipated and unanticipated oil price increases in a small two-country monetary union, which is simultaneously characterized by asymmetric wage adjustments and asymmetric interest rate sensitivities of private absorption. Common external oil price disturbances lead in this asymmetric macroeconomic setup to temporary divergences in output development...

This paper investigates the implications of U.S. withdrawal on environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, and the distribution of compliance costs taking into account market power of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) on emission permit markets. While exercise of market power on behalf of FSU under U.S. compliance has no environmental impact as compared to competitive permit trade, it prevent...

This paper uses annual data on world oil price and consumption from 1965 to 2006 to calibrate a Hotelling model of optimal nonrenewable resource extraction. Numerical solutions are generated for various specifications of the elasticity of demand for both isoelastic demand and linear demand under each of two possible market structures: perfect competition and monopoly. Prior to the 1973 oil cris...

We show that U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol is straightforward under political economy considerations. The reason is that U.S. compliance costs exceed low willingness to pay for dealing with global warming in the U.S. The withdrawal had a crucial impact on the concretion of the Protocol prior to its likely ratification at the end of 2002. Remaining non-EU Parties to the Kyoto Protocol ...

While bringing positive impacts and benefits, cross-border infrastructure projects face additional challenges relative to national projects. Moreover, such projects involve a variety of technical, regulatory, institutional, and legal factors, and their obstacles constrain the development of cross-border infrastructure projects. This paper argues that proper technical specifications and well-fun...

abstract this paper sketches a model of product differentiation according to the hedonic hypothesis that is based on the theory of consumer behavior of lancaster (1971). lancaster suggested that utility is derived from the characteristics of the good and not the good itself. thus, from the perception of the consumer, every characteristic has a price. this is the hedonic (or implicit) price. we ...

This research attempts to examine the links between fluctuating oil prices, economic sanctions and the employment in the Libyan economy. In particular, this study attempts to answer the basic question whether UN’s resolutions number 748 (1992) of 31 March 1992 and oil price fluctuations have any significant influence on the employment in Libya. One of this study’s key findings is that fluctuati...