Various classical techniques such as linear regression, nearest neighbor have been used in developing predictive models in the past. But the methodologies developed using fuzzy time series includes a wide array of work that requires special attention. The time series analysis has been of great importance to engineering and economy problems. In this paper, we present a brief summary of the vario...

Fuzzy Logic is one of the concepts that has created different scientific attitudes by entering into various professional fields nowadays and in some cases has made remarkable effects on the results of the practical researches. However, the existence of stochastic and uncertain situations in risk and accident field, affects the possibility of the forecasting and preventing the occurrence of the ...

Childhood disease epidemics in large cities, notably measles, have been proposed as a well-supported example of deterministic chaos underlying complex population dynamics, but this remains controversial. Methods based on nonlinear time series modeling identify these epidemics as nonlinear with substantial random noise, clustering near the transition between stability and chaos. This conclusion ...

Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex systems approach to modeling. Recent studies have demonstrated that predicting different components of outbreaks–e.g., the expected number of cases, pace and tem...

This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning of demand-side Bulk Electricity Market Customers (BEMCs). The Ontario electricity market is selected as the primary case market and its structure is studied in detail. A set of explanatory variable cand...

The study of fuzzy time series has increasingly attracted much attention due to its salient capabilities of tackling vague and incomplete data. A variety of forecasting models have devoted to improving forecasting accuracy, however, the issue of partitioning intervals has rarely been investigated. Recently, we proposed a novel deterministic forecasting model to eliminate the major overhead of d...

this article is a comparative study of estimation power of artificial neural networks and autoregressive time series models in inflation forecasting. using 37 years iran’s inflation data, neural networks performs better on average for short horizons than autoregressive models. this study shows usefulness of early stopping technique in learning stage of neural networks for estimating time series...

A new method of predicting chaotic time series is presented based on a local Lyapunov exponent, by quantitatively measuring the exponential rate of separation or attraction of two infinitely close trajectories in state space. After reconstructing state space from one-dimensional chaotic time series, neighboring multiple-state vectors of the predicting point are selected to deduce the prediction...

forecasting of macroeconomic variables has specific importance in economic topics. indeed, different models are invented to forecast variables to help economic policy makers in adopting appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. in this paper, the performance of integrated model of input-output (io) and neural network is investigated in forecasting final demand and total production and the resul...