Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of most elementary epidemiological model, consisting susceptible, infected, removed compartments. This novel methodology is used estimate basic reproduction ratio recent outbreaks, including ongoing COVID-19 epidemic.

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this does not have a tractable solution approximations must be utilised. In work, variational approach is used to provide an assumed density which approximates desired, intractable, distribution. The deterministic results in optimisation standard form. D...