Conventional benefit-cost analysis incorporates the normally reasonable assumption that the policy or project under examination is marginal. In particular, it is assumed that the policy or project does not change the underlying growth rate of the economy. However, this assumption may be inappropriate in some important circumstances, notably responding to climate change. One example is the benef...

We study optimal adaptation to climate change when the harmful consequences of global warming are associated with stochastic occurrence of abrupt changes. The adaptation policy entails the accumulation of a particular sort of capital that will eliminate or reduce the catastrophic damage of an abrupt climate change when (and if) it occurs. The occurrence date is uncertain. The policy problem inv...

 This paper examines the two most important current efforts to devise new rules binding all nations the negotiations in the WTO of trade rules and the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to devise rules restricting the annual emissions of greenhouse gases. Both negotiations have failed after several years of intensive effort. There are remarkable parallels in these ...

This paper analyzes the joint design of fiscal and cap-and-trade instruments in climate policies under uncertainty. Whether the optimal mechanism is a mixed policy (with some firms subject to a tax and others to a cap-and-trade) or a uniform one (with all firms subject to the same instrument) depends on parameters reflecting preferences, production, and, most importantly, the stochastic structu...

We estimate grid level tourist numbers to Arctic Circle countries under a number of climate change scenarios. At present, the highest tourism volumes are found in Canada and most of the Scandinavian countries. In general, it appears that tourists are attracted to regions with better infrastructure and nicer cities. Under each climate change scenario, Russia sees a significant increase in touris...

This article describes three essential elements of an effective post-2012 international cli-mate policy architecture: a framework to ensure that key industrialized and developingnations are involved in differentiated but meaningful ways, an emphasis on an extended timepath for emissions targets, and the inclusion of flexible market-based policy instruments tokeep costs down and ...

This study explores the for labor-related production impacts of temperature stress both for its own interest and to understand the scope for adaptation to climate change. Focusing on non-agricultural output, I find that hot temperature exerts a significant causal impact on local labor product, with substantially larger effects in highly exposed industries such as construction, manufacturing, an...

This paper compares internationally-tradeable permits with a uniform carbon price, as seen through the lens of an individual country. To ensure a level playing field, these two approaches are initially calibrated to be welfare-equivalent for the country in a deterministic setting. While both price and quantity instruments have identical consequences under perfect certainty, outcomes differ subs...

The authors estimate the growth rate of the social cost of carbon. This is an indication of the optimal rate of acceleration of greenhouse gas emission reduction policy over time. The authors find that the social cost of carbon increases by 1.3% to 3.9% per year, with a central estimate of 2.2%. Previous studies found an average rate of 2.3% and a range of 0.9 to 4.1%. The rate of increase of t...

This paper assesses the role of the public sector in adaptation to climate change. We first offer a definition and categorisation of climate change adaptation. We then consider the primary economic principles that can guide the assignment of adaptation tasks to either the private or the public sector, as well as those guiding assignment within the public sector itself. We find that the role of ...