We describe a viewpoint on the Dcmpstcr/Shafcr "Theory of Evidence", and provide an interpretation which regards the combination formulas as statistics of the opinions of "experts". This is done by introducing spaces with binary operations that arc simpler to interpret or simpler to implement than the standard combination formula, and showing that these spaces can be mapped homomorphically onto...

The need for validated analytical methods and reference materials to identify and measure constituents in dietary supplements is essential. Such methods allow for the documentation that products meet manufacturer's specifications and contain what their labels declare. In March 2003, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a proposed rule that would establish specific current good manufactu...

An important question when eliciting opinions from experts is how to aggregate the reported opinions. In this paper, we propose a pooling method to aggregate expert opinions. Intuitively, it works as if the experts were continuously updating their opinions in order to accommodate the expertise of others. Each updated opinion takes the form of a linear opinion pool, where the weight that an expe...

INTRODUCTION Laparoscopic surgery is particularly known for its complex technique, which calls for operative analysis of laparoscopic instruments. This study investigates the opinion of experts about clinical problems with instruments occurring during laparoscopic surgery. METHODS A questionnaire was used to obtain the opinions of expert laparoscopic surgeons about difficulties experienced op...

This article reviews statistical techniques for combining multiple probability distributions. The framework is that of a decision maker who consults several experts regarding some events. The experts express their opinions in the form of probability distributions. The decision maker must aggregate the experts' distributions into a single distribution that can be used for decision making. Two cl...

Expert witnesses use various methods to render dispassionate opinions. Some forensic psychiatrists acknowledge bias up front; other experts use principles endorsed by the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law or other professional organizations. This article introduces CHESS, a systematic method for reducing bias in expert opinions. The CHESS method involves identifying a Claim or prelimin...