This paper explores the impact of investor flows and financial market conditions on returns in crude-oil futures markets. I argue that informational frictions and the associated speculative activity may induce prices to drift away from “fundamental” values, and may result in booms and busts in prices. Particular attention is given to the interplay between imperfect information about real econom...

A portfolio model to minimize the risk of falling under uncertainty is discussed. The risk of falling is represented by the value-at-risk of rate of return. Introducing the perception-based extension of the value-at-risk, this paper formulates a portfolio problem to minimize the risk of falling with fuzzy random variables. In the proposed model, randomness and fuzziness are evaluated respective...

In all the finance innovations, warrant and its finance relative product will be the new direction. Warrant has the lower risk compared with others, and there is a large quantity of demand for it. In our inland security market, the condition for developing other finance product, such as stock futures and stock option is not mature, so it is a smart choice to choose warrant at first. Warrant is ...

the aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of setting up a commodities futures market in iran. specifications for the margin requirements, daily price movement limits, the length of expiration intervals, tick sizes and contract size of various potential future contracts are hereby examined. saffron, pistachio and rice emerge as the three suitable iranian agricultural commodities. a new...

This paper examines volatility models of currency futures contracts for three developed markets and two emerging markets. For each contract, standard models of the Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis (UEH) and Cost-of-Carry hypothesis (COC) are extended to derive volatility models corresponding to each of the two standard approaches. Each volatility model is formulated as a system of individual eq...

Futures exchanges require a margin requirement that ensures their competitiveness and protects against default risk. This paper applies extreme value theory in computing unconditional optimal margin levels for a selection of stock index futures traded on European exchanges. The theoretical framework focuses explicitly on tail returns, thereby properly accounting for large levels of risk in meas...

We provide an explanation for the explosive growth in the popularity of Stock Index Futures contracts. In our economy there are three broad classes of traders that place orders with a competitive market maker that sets a bid-ask spread arising from adverse selection. Informed traders trade on the basis of their private information about the value of particular securities. Liquidity traders trad...

We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the futures market is informative about (i) the expected dividend growth rate and (ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and aggregate stock returns. We show that accounting for the dividend risk premium strengthens the predictability of di...

this paper investigates the forecasting gold coin futures contract price in iran mercantile exchange. this research has presented a hybrid model based on genetic fuzzy systems (gfs) and artificial neural network (ann) to forecast the gold futures contract, at first, we use stepwise regression analysis (sra) to determine factors which have most influence on stock prices. at the next stage we div...

a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Multivariate GARCH model Optimal hedge ratio Market noise conditional volatility This paper introduces a new incomplete index and establishes a new optimal hedging model. We find that when the market micro-noise is perfectly negatively correlated with the return of futures market, market incomplete-ness depends on the relative level of noise volatility. Especiall...